In-Depth Analysis: The US Announces “Takeover” of the Strait of Hormuz! Unprecedented 20% Toll—Where is the Global Supply Chain Headed?

On July 13, 2026, the global shipping industry received shocking news. US President Trump announced on social media that the United States would reimpose a naval blockade on Iran and levy a 20% toll on all goods transported through the Strait of Hormuz, claiming the US would become the "Guardian Angel of the Strait." This unprecedented statement immediately triggered an uproar in global energy markets and the shipping industry, with Brent crude oil jumping 4.1% to nearly $80 per barrel.

The Strait of Hormuz: The Strategic Chokepoint of the Global Energy Lifeline

To understand the far-reaching impact of this event, one must first understand the core position of the Strait of Hormuz in the global supply chain. This waterway, located between Iran and Oman and measuring only about 33 kilometers at its narrowest point, is the world's most important oil transport chokepoint. According to data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), approximately one-third of the world's seaborne oil and up to 20% of the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply must be transported through here.

Oil exports from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, the UAE, and Iran almost entirely depend on this shipping lane. Should the strait fall into a long-term blockade or turmoil, the impact on global energy supplies and inflation will far exceed any previous Red Sea crisis.

From Ceasefire to Collapse: The Rapid Escalation of US-Iran Conflict

The trigger for the incident was the collapse of a Memorandum of Understanding signed between the US and Iran last month. According to Reuters, shortly after the ceasefire agreement took effect, Iran announced it was "closing" the strait, stating it would only reissue transit permits after "stability and calm are restored."

Trump's response was firm: "We had a deal, a rock-solid deal, and then they broke it. They always break it. We've signed 10 deals with these people, so we just have to hit them hard."

Currently, vessel traffic through the strait has plummeted to a two-month low, with only 34 vessels passing through in the last 24 hours. In contrast, the daily average during the ceasefire was 40 to 50 vessels, while normal levels before the conflict were as high as approximately 150 vessels. This means that actual transit volume in the strait has shriveled to less than a quarter of normal levels.

20% Toll: An Unprecedented "Strait Tax"

Of all the announcements, the most shocking to the shipping industry was the plan to levy a 20% toll. Trump stated that the US has paid a huge price to maintain the security of the strait and deserves compensation: "Other countries are very wealthy, they are on our side, and we cannot be expected to do these things for them for nothing."

In response, the UN International Maritime Organization (IMO) quickly issued a statement clearly opposing the imposition of tolls on any strait, noting it would wait for more details before making further assessments. Currently, the specific enforcement mechanism and legal basis for this "Strait Tax" remain unclear, but the policy signal it sends has already put global traders on high alert.

The Triple Shock to Global Logistics

Shock 1: Chain Reaction Driving Up Fuel Costs

The tension in the Strait of Hormuz has a relatively limited direct impact on container shipping—less than 2% of global container volume passes directly through here. However, the indirect impact cannot be ignored. The surge in oil prices will directly push up vessel fuel costs, which will then be passed on to cargo owners on all major routes in the form of a Bunker Adjustment Factor (BAF).

Shock 2: Skyrocketing War Risk Insurance Premiums

Ongoing conflict in the Middle East has led marine insurers to significantly increase War Risk Insurance premiums. For vessels needing to navigate near the Persian Gulf, the increase in insurance costs will further erode profit margins and ultimately be reflected in the transportation costs for cargo owners. It is important to note that general cargo insurance typically does not cover force majeure factors such as war or strikes; cargo owners need to purchase additional coverage.

Shock 3: Compounded Pressure on Trans-Pacific Freight Rates

Against the backdrop of the Strait of Hormuz crisis, global container freight rates are facing compounded pressures. Spot rates from Asia to the US West Coast have reached $7,400/FEU, while rates toward the US East Coast are closer to $9,000/FEU. Since late May, trans-Pacific freight rates have risen by a cumulative total of over $3,000/FEU.

How Cargo Owners Should Respond

Faced with this complex and volatile situation, cargo owners need to reassess their supply chain strategies across several levels.

First, closely monitor policy developments. The situation between the US and Iran is changing rapidly, and the enforcement details of the 20% toll are not yet clear. Cargo owners should maintain close communication with logistics partners to stay informed of the latest route adjustments and fee changes.

Second, secure space in advance. In a market environment where freight rates are high and continuing to rise, the risk of spot booking is extremely high. It is recommended that cargo owners forecast shipping needs 3 to 4 weeks in advance and consider signing long-term Block Space Agreements (BSA) with carriers to lock in base freight rates.

Finally, evaluate alternative transportation solutions. For goods with high time-sensitivity, consider shifting some sea freight to air freight or adopting a Sea-Air hybrid model to achieve the best balance between cost and speed.

In this geopolitical game full of uncertainty, supply chain flexibility and adaptability will be the keys to whether a company can respond with composure.

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