Global trade reached $13.7 trillion in H1 2026: inflation concerns and supply chain reshoring behind the growth

A newly released report by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) shows that global merchandise trade reached approximately $13.7 trillion in the first half of 2026, up 12.5% year on year, while services trade also recorded a 10.5% increase. Together, these figures contributed an absolute increase of about $2 trillion to global trade, seemingly signalling that international trade is heading toward a record-high year. However, a closer look at the report’s underlying logic makes it clear that this seemingly impressive “growth feast” is in fact driven more by price inflation than by a real increase in cargo volumes. For importers and exporters embedded in global supply chain networks, this is not a signal for blind optimism, but a risk warning that demands heightened vigilance.

The report clearly states that the marked rise in trade value is largely attributable to higher commodity prices. In Q1 2026, global traded-goods prices rose by about 3.6%, and in Q2 they are estimated to have risen a further 5%. Behind this price inflation lie deeper geopolitical issues and logistics bottlenecks. In particular, shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz not only directly pushed up global energy prices, but also triggered a chain reaction that drove up transportation, logistics, and production costs across the board. When companies pay 3% to 5% more in procurement and freight for the same quantity of goods, total trade value naturally rises—but this does not represent a genuine expansion in market demand; rather, it reflects the heavy pressure of operating costs. This “more volume, less profit” phenomenon is the biggest hidden concern facing global trade today.

Regionally, East Asia has become the main engine driving global trade growth, with China and South Korea in particular posting notably strong import and export performance. However, this growth is extremely uneven. Outside East Asia, trade in other Asian subregions even contracted in the first quarter, while Africa and the Americas showed an imbalance in which import growth outpaced export growth. More notably, in specific industries, demand for artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure, digital technologies, and electric vehicles has driven astonishing growth in trade for related technology-intensive products. Data show that trade in critical minerals surged by 38%, semiconductors grew by 25%, batteries by 15%, information and communications technology (ICT) products by 14%, and electric vehicles by 11%. These figures clearly outline a profound transformation in the global industrial structure, with high-tech and green energy-related industries becoming the key forces shaping future trade flows.

Amid this complex landscape shaped by both price inflation and structural transformation, logistics and supply chain management is facing unprecedented tests. High energy prices and unstable shipping routes have directly increased the unpredictability of ocean and air freight costs. For importers and exporters, traditional single-mode transport and fixed supplier networks can no longer cope with today’s risks. When transport costs account for the vast majority of product profit, companies must reassess their supply chain footprint. On the one hand, to mitigate route disruptions caused by geopolitical risks, businesses need to build more flexible multimodal transport solutions, and may even consider relocating part of their production lines closer to end markets to shorten supply chain length. On the other hand, for high-value goods with rapidly rising demand—such as semiconductors and ICT products—ensuring safe, on-time delivery across a turbulent logistics network has become central to competitiveness.

Under the dual squeeze of surging costs and compressed margins, refined logistics management is no longer a “nice-to-have”—it is essential for survival. Importers and exporters need to use data analytics to forecast freight-rate trends, dynamically adjust inventory strategies, and find the optimal balance between the spot market and long-term contracts. At the same time, when delays are caused by force majeure (such as extreme weather or geopolitical conflict), companies must clearly recognize that traditional cargo insurance often does not cover these risks. Therefore, establishing robust contingency plans and working closely with logistics partners with deep industry experience—leveraging professional route planning and real-time monitoring to minimize potential losses—is the only way for businesses to develop steadily in today’s volatile trade environment.

While the headline figures for global trade may look impressive, the cost challenges hidden behind them cannot be ignored. In an era full of uncertainty, only companies with sharp market insight and strong supply chain execution can seize opportunities amid the turbulence and turn crises into turning points.

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(Note: insurance does not cover force majeure.)