China’s low-value cross-border e-commerce exports have fallen for six consecutive months: Hong Kong’s re-export role faces a test

Introduction: The cross-border e-commerce winter and the challenges facing Hong Kong as a re-export hub

Amid the wave of booming global e-commerce, China’s cross-border e-commerce exports were once a powerful force that could not be ignored. However, the latest data reveal a worrying trend: China’s low-value cross-border e-commerce exports fell 7% year-on-year in May 2026, marking the sixth consecutive month of decline[1]. This chill has not only swept across e-commerce platforms in mainland China, but has also brought unprecedented tests to Hong Kong’s logistics industry as a key transshipment hub.

As major markets such as Europe and the United States tighten duty-free policies for low-value parcels, cross-border e-commerce that relies on the “small-parcel direct mail” model is facing a make-or-break moment. For cargo owners and traders, this is not merely a matter of rising costs—it is a warning that the entire supply chain model must be fundamentally reshaped.

Policy tightening: The end of the duty-free era and a sharp surge in costs

The core reason behind the continued decline in China’s low-value cross-border e-commerce exports lies in major adjustments to the “de minimis” policy in European and U.S. markets.

First, the United States abolished the duty-free exemption for parcels under US$800 from China and Hong Kong in 2025[2]. This means that goods that previously could enter the U.S. market at extremely low cost must now bear the corresponding tariffs, directly weakening their price competitiveness.

More critically, the EU will officially abolish the duty-free regime for parcels under €150 on July 1, 2026[3]. Under the new rules, each item will not only be subject to a uniform €3 tariff, but will also require full product data declaration. The implementation of this policy is undoubtedly a heavy blow to platforms such as Temu, Shein, and AliExpress that rely on low-price strategies. Statistics show that more than 36% of cross-border e-commerce operators are already planning to raise product prices to pass on costs, which will further dampen consumers’ willingness to buy.

A double test for Hong Kong as a re-export hub: shrinking volumes and customs clearance pressure

As one of the world’s busiest air cargo hubs, Hong Kong has long served as a key transshipment point for China’s cross-border e-commerce exports. However, amid this wave of policy tightening, Hong Kong’s logistics industry is facing a double test.

On the one hand, as China’s low-value e-commerce export volumes continue to shrink, cargo volumes re-exported via Hong Kong are inevitably affected. In particular, major export categories such as electronics have recorded growth in some months, but the overall downward trend in low-value parcel volumes has become a foregone conclusion.

On the other hand, the EU’s newly implemented full-declaration requirements have significantly increased the complexity of customs clearance procedures. “Small parcels” that previously cleared customs quickly now require detailed product descriptions, certificates of origin, and value declarations. This not only extends the time goods remain at the port, but also increases logistics companies’ administrative costs for compliance reviews. For cargo owners that fail to adapt to the new rules in time, the risk of goods being detained for inspection or even returned is rising sharply.

Cargo owner response strategies: shifting from a “price war” to “value chain” reshaping

Facing an increasingly challenging cross-border e-commerce environment, cargo owners and traders must quickly adjust their strategies—shifting from relying solely on a “price war” to reshaping the entire “value chain.”

1. Optimize product mix and increase added value: Now that the duty-free advantage for low-priced goods is gone, cargo owners should consider optimizing their product lines and increasing the share of higher value-added products. By improving product quality, brand image, and after-sales service, they can offset the price disadvantage caused by higher tariffs.
2. Diversify market presence and spread single-market risk: The risks of over-reliance on European and U.S. markets have been fully exposed. Cargo owners should actively develop emerging markets such as ASEAN, the Middle East, and Latin America, where e-commerce penetration is growing rapidly and acceptance of Chinese products is relatively high.
3. Shift logistics models and leverage overseas warehouses: To address rising “small-parcel direct mail” costs and slower customs clearance, cargo owners may consider adopting a “B2B2C” model—shipping goods in bulk to overseas warehouses in the target market first, then completing last-mile delivery locally. This not only reduces per-item shipping costs, but also significantly improves the customer delivery experience.
4. Strengthen compliance management and seek professional logistics support: With customs regulations becoming increasingly stringent worldwide, compliant declarations have become the lifeline of cross-border e-commerce. Cargo owners should build a robust product database to ensure declaration information is accurate. At the same time, choosing professional logistics partners with extensive customs clearance experience and a global network will be key to navigating complex clearance procedures.

Conclusion

The continued decline in China’s low-value cross-border e-commerce exports signals that an era reliant on policy dividends has come to an end. For Hong Kong as a re-export hub and for cargo owners at large, this is both a severe challenge and an opportunity to drive industry upgrading. In this transformation period full of uncertainties, only by staying agile, optimizing supply chain deployment, and seeking professional logistics solutions can companies remain competitive in intense international competition.

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References

[1] China’s low-value e-commerce exports fell 7% year-on-year in May 2026. Stat Times.
[2] Dropship China Pro Addresses E-Commerce Seller Challenges. Yahoo Finance.
[3] Ship to EU in 2026: How to Adapt to the EU De Minimis Change. DHL.